As Halloween decorations still linger, the Salvation Army donation bins are out and Christmas music is on the radio. That means Americans are already thinking about what they're buying for the holidays. It also means that kids are thinking about what they're going to tell their parents they want.
Walmart ($WMT), the largest brick-and-mortar retailer in America, touts itself as "America's Best Toy Shop," which might come as a bit of a sting to those who were once Toys R' Us kids.
Since 2015, we have collected sales-rank data from Walmart's public e-commerce API across multiple product categories, including Toys. By averaging sales-rank data for each category and then counting the number of days each product remained on Walmart's top-sellers list, we get an accurate picture of which toys Walmart customers are buying as holiday shopping season ramps up.
Right now, a 3-pack of 1-foot tall Marvel action figures has dominated the past month on Walmart, as it was the #1 best-selling toy for 31 straight days.
A 9-pack of Hot Wheels cars and a LEGO Snowman round out the top-three toys with the best average bestseller rank.
| Name | Toys Category Rank (Average) | Toys Category Rank (Count) |
|---|---|---|
| Marvel Titan Hero Series, 3-Pack | 1 | 31 |
| Hot Wheels 9-pack (styles may vary) | 2 | 31 |
| LEGO Snowman 40093 | 3 | 31 |
| FurReal Friends Cuddles My Giggly Monkey Pet | 4 | 18 |
| Air Hogs Helix Video Drone | 4.580645161 | 31 |
| VTech Sit-to-Stand Ultimate Alphabet Train | 5.580645161 | 31 |
| Lego Easter Chick 40202 | 6.580645161 | 31 |
| Simon Swipe Game | 7.777777778 | 18 |
| Shopkins Shoppies S1 Doll Pack, Bubbleisha | 8 | 2 |
| Play-Doh Super Color 20 Pack, 60 oz | 8.161290323 | 31 |
| NINTENDO AMIIBO LUCINA | 9.259259259 | 27 |
| Brightlings Interactive Plush, Teal, 15" | 10.09677419 | 31 |
| Tube Heroes TDM Hero Pack | 11.22222222 | 27 |
| Best Choice Products Toy Fire Truck Electric Flashing Lights and Siren Sound, Bump and Go Action | 11.96774194 | 31 |
| Baby Alive Lil' Sips Baby Has a Tea Party Doll - Blonde Hair | 13.38709677 | 31 |
| Moose Toys Shopkins Shoppies S2 Doll, Peppa-Mint | 14 | 13 |
| Pressman Toy Let's Go Fishin' Game | 14.80645161 | 31 |
The overall list is relatively stable compared to the bestselling toys for the 2016 pre-December holiday period, which we extrapolated out from October 1 to November 30 of that year.
Back then, there were only four toys that consistently ranked (more than 30 days) within the top-100, and not one toy had become the unanimous best-seller. According to data, kids were only truly adamant about the latest Nerf Blasters, as well as the "Speak Out" and "Pie Face" board games, which both rose to popularity due to stints on popular TV and online shows like Ellen DeGeneres' daytime talk show.
| Name | Toys Category Rank (Average) | Toys Category Rank (Count) |
|---|---|---|
| 50-Piece Train Set with 2-in-1 Activity Table | 2 | 3 |
| Shopkins Season 6 Chef Club, Mega Pack | 2.736842105 | 19 |
| LEGO LEGO Friends LEGO Friends Advent Calendar 41131 | 3 | 8 |
| Speak Out Game | 4.959183673 | 49 |
| LEGO Snowman 40093 | 5.346938776 | 49 |
| Funko POP! Marvel Dr. Strange, Dr. Strange, Walmart Exclusive | 6.25 | 4 |
| Shopkins Shoppies Gemma Stone | 8.2 | 5 |
| Nerf Rebelle Fearless Fire Blaster | 8.8 | 45 |
| Lego Classic Lego Large Creative Box | 8.857142857 | 14 |
| FurReal Friends Cuddles My Giggly Monkey Pet | 9.14 | 50 |
| DreamWorks Trolls Troll Collection Pack | 9.666666667 | 12 |
| LEGO Classic LEGO Creative Building Set, 10702 | 10.54545455 | 11 |
| Pie Face Game | 11.46428571 | 28 |
| Nerf N-Strike Elite Demolisher 2-in-1 Blaster | 11.66666667 | 3 |
| Fisher-Price Thomas & Friends Take 'N Play Roaring Dino Run | 12 | 2 |
| Minions Mini Guitar | 12.8 | 50 |
| Fisher-Price Thomas ; Friends Take 'N Play Roaring Dino Run | 13.4 | 5 |
| Hot Wheels Ultimate Garage Playset With Car Wash | 14.6 | 5 |
| Disney Princess Cinderella Royal Dreams Dollhouse with Furniture by KidKraft | 14.66666667 | 3 |
| Air Hogs Helix Video Drone | 14.74 | 50 |
Only three toys — the LEGO Snowman, the Air Hogs Helix Video Drone, and the FurReal Friends Cuddles My Giggly Monkey Pet — were ranked both in 2016 and 2018.
The stark contrast between best-seller rankings on toys in 2016 and 2018 gives an idea of how much the taste in toys for kids (and parents) have changed in just two years. Namely, there is only one board game that consistently ranked within the top-15 toys at Walmart this year (Simon Swipe), and there aren't any musical instruments classified as toys.
We'll see how the rest of the pre-December shopping season shapes up at Walmart before we declare a true winner as the hottest toy of 2018.